Randy
Schnepf
Specialist in Agricultural Policy
Record
Midwest heat in June and July (2012) sparked the worst U.S. drought since 1956,
causing damage to major field crops. This situation has contributed to
record U.S. prices for corn and soybeans in both cash and futures markets
in 2012, and has fanned the fears of food price inflation reminiscent of
2008. The heightened commodity price volatility of 2008 and the subsequent
acceleration in U.S. food price inflation associated with commodity market
shifts raised concerns and generated many questions about farm and food
price movements by Members of Congress and their constituents. However,
historical evidence suggests that retail prices for processed food
products are driven more by consumer demand (strongly linked to general
economic conditions), than by price changes in raw commodity markets, although
this linkage varies with the degree of raw commodity content in the retail
product. For a discussion of the relationship between farm and retail
prices, and the major factors influencing retail food prices, see CRS
Report R40621, Farm-to-Food Price Dynamics, by Randy Schnepf. This
report focuses instead on the nature and measurement of retail food price
inflation and its relationship to consumers.
During the 1991 to 2006 period, U.S. food prices were fairly stable—annual food
price inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all
food (excluding alcoholic beverages), averaged a relatively low 2.5%.
However, several economic factors emerged in late 2005 that began to
gradually push market prices higher for both raw agricultural commodities and
energy costs, and ultimately retail food prices. U.S. food price inflation
increased at a rate of 4% in 2007 and at 5.5% in 2008—the highest since
1990 and well above the general inflation rate of 3.8%. The situation of
sharply rising prices came to a sudden halt in late 2008 when the financial
crisis hit U.S. markets leading to a severe economic recession. Annual
food price inflation dropped to 1.8% in 2009 and 0.8% in 2010, before
rising to 3.7% in 2011 driven by improving U.S. and global economic
conditions. USDA projects that annual food price inflation will range from 2.5% to
3.5% in 2012 and rise to 3%-4% in 2013.
The All-Food CPI has two components—food-at-home and food-away-from-home. The
food-athome CPI is most representative of retail food prices and is
significantly more volatile than the food-away-from-home index. The
food-at-home CPI is projected in a range of 3% to 4% for 2013, compared
with a 2.5% to 3.5% annual inflation rate for food-away-from home prices. This difference
is partially explained by the larger share of farm products in the final price
of retail foods than in food-away-from home. Farm product prices are, in
general, substantially more volatile than the other marketing and
processing costs that enter into retail or ready-to-eat foods.
Many wages and salaries, as well as federal programs (including several
domestic food assistance programs), are linked to price inflation through
escalation clauses in order to retain consumer purchasing power. For households
where income and federal benefits do not keep up with price inflation,
declines in purchasing power are real and immediate. However, even for
households with escalation clauses, a time lag usually occurs between the
time the price inflation is measured and the time when the wage or program
benefit is adjusted upward to compensate. The 2008- 2009 global economic
crisis—which involved higher retail prices and unemployment, income loss,
and lower effective household purchasing power—resulted in higher participation
rates in the federal food and nutrition programs since then. As a result,
USDA’s food and nutrition assistance programs have seen a tremendous
expansion in use—federal expenditures totaled $103.3 billion in FY2011 and
marked the 11th consecutive year in which food and nutrition assistance
expenditures exceeded the previous historical record. Since FY2000,
expenditures for food and nutrition assistance have more than tripled.
Date of Report: October 4, 2012
Number of Pages: 36
Order Number: R40545
Price: $29.95
To Order:
R40545.pdf
to use the SECURE SHOPPING CART
e-mail congress@pennyhill.com
Phone
301-253-0881
For email and phone orders, provide a Visa, MasterCard, American Express, or Discover card
number, expiration date, and name on the card. Indicate whether you want e-mail
or postal delivery. Phone orders are preferred and receive priority processing.